Past runoff provides look at expected turnout for Baxter County sheriff race

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Voters in Baxter County will return to the polls on March 31 to finish deciding their future Sheriff but what can past elections teach us about voter turnout and voting patterns in a runoff election?

This last week the race for Baxter County Sheriff ended in a runoff as neither Brian Davis, Mark Hollingsworth or Henry Campfield were able to secure the needed 50 percent plus one vote margin to claim victory. The two top contenders Hollingsworth and Davis will face off on March 31.

This year’s primary landed in the top 4 for voter turnout since 1996 with a total of 7,965 voters casting ballots. In the Sheriff’s race a total 7,275 votes were cast with Hollingsworth leading at 3,346 votes or 46%, Davis with 2,917 votes or 40% and Campfield securing 1,012 or 14% of the vote. Only 429 votes separated Davis and Hollingsworth. Another 294 votes in Hollingsworth’s direction would have secured the win.

This year’s turnout was beat back in 2022 as voters decided the future of the Baxter County Judge, a race that Kevin Litty won but not until a turn around in the runoff that year. 2022’s primary had voter participation at 8,712 – one of the largest in recent history. Four candidates faced off for County Judge- Brian Plumlee, Kevin Litty, Eric Payne and Shannon Feliccia. Plumlee had the most votes with 3,472 at 44%, Litty secured 2,714 or 35%. Plumlee and Litty had a vote difference of 758.

2022’s runoff election gives a glimpse into historical turnout as just under half as many votes were cast. 4,126 votes were cast or about 47% of the turnout for the primary. Litty secured the win with 2209 (54%) to Plumlee’s 1917 (46%). Only 292 votes was the difference between the two races.

If history does repeat then voter turnout out for this year’s runoff for the Sheriff’s office would be just over 3,500 voters. This year’s margins are closer than the 2022 race so both candidates will need to make their case to voters as well as court previous supporters of Campfield to shore up enough votes for the win.

State election law schedules runoff elections four weeks after the primary, meaning the 2026 runoff will take place on Tuesday, March 31.

Early voting information

Early voting for the runoff will begin Tuesday, March 24 and continue through Monday, March 30.

Early voting in Baxter County will be held at the First United Methodist Church in Mountain Home from 8 to 4:30.

On Election Day, March 31, polls across Arkansas will be open from 7:30 a.m. until 7:30 p.m. for voters casting ballots in person.

Vote centers will be open throughout Baxter County, allowing residents to vote at any available polling location regardless of their home precinct.

Election officials remind voters they must have been registered by March 2 to participate in the runoff election.

The March 31 vote will decide the Republican nominee for sheriff, which in many cases, including this one, determines who will hold the office due to the lack of opposition in the general election.

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