Arkansas will be on the hook for millions of dollars in additional Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program funding starting in October 2026 as a result of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act.
The act, which extended a suite of tax cuts, is funded in part by significant cuts and changes to SNAP and other benefit programs. GOP lawmakers cut spending on SNAP by shifting the costs of assistance payments to states for the first time in the program’s 86-year history.
Each state’s share will depend on how frequently it overpays or underpays SNAP benefits, which is expressed as a percentage called the error rate.
States with error rates below 6% will continue to see the federal government foot 100% of the cost of benefits, but states with error rates over 6% the majority will pay at least 5% of SNAP benefit costs starting in fiscal year 2028. The share increases when error rates hit certain thresholds. The legislation also increases the state share of administrative costs from 50% to 75% starting in FY2027.
Arkansas’ current payment error rate is 7.29%, according to data provided by the Department of Human Services.
The Advocate used the law to calculate what effect the cost-shifting will have on Arkansas’ budget, which has seen billion-dollar surpluses a few years ago shrink to less than $400 million in the fiscal year that ended June 30.
In the most expensive scenario, the additional cost to the state would be just over $100 million. Other scenarios resulted in substantially smaller hits.
This new cost-sharing model has worried advocates, who fear thousands across the country could lose benefits if states can’t or won’t fund the increased cost-sharing.
“We expect that the Big Beautiful Bill is going to reduce substantially the number of people who are enrolled in SNAP benefits,” said Dr. Hilary Seligman, a food insecurity expert and professor at the University of California San Francisco, who made the comments during an informational session for journalists.
About 42 million Americans receive SNAP benefits; Arkansas had 244,278 individuals and 129,089 households enrolled in SNAP in June, DHS spokesperson Gavin Lesnick said. That’s about 8% of the state population and 10% of households.
The increased cost-sharing required by the law means “there will likely be reductions in the capacity of the state to support people,” Seligman said.
The Advocate calculated the additional obligations under the law could cost Arkansas an estimated $102.13 million at the high end or 55.17% of the state’s projected fiscal year 2026 surplus not accounting for Arkansas’ existing administrative cost-share obligation, or potential increases in benefit costs or enrollment.
If Arkansas’ payment error remains flat at 7.29%, the benefit cost-share would be 5%. That could result in $26 million in new benefit cost obligations alone, or $49.97 million in total new obligations.
If the error rate increases to 8%, the state share would increase to 10% increasing the state’s benefit cost obligation to $52.15 million, and its total new obligations under the law to $76 million.
That equates to roughly 41% of Arkansas’ projected FY2026 surplus.
Holding pattern
The Arkansas Legislature will meet for its fiscal session before some of the new cost-sharing goes into effect, providing an opportunity to address any likely spending and budget adjustments. But any cutbacks to SNAP in Arkansas, one of the poorest and most food insecure states in the country, could be particularly hard-felt.
Emily Piechocki, chief development officer for Arkansas Foodbank, said her organization is preparing to solicit even more donations to prepare for increased demand.
“We know we will see an increased need,” she said. “We do not think it is going to be possible for us to fill the gap. I mean, we are certainly going to try but there’s no way we can replace what will be lost that the government was previously funding.”
The state Department of Human Services, which administers SNAP, declined an interview request to discuss the changes and how they might affect nutrition programs in Arkansas. Lesnick said the department looks forward to receiving “additional guidance” from the federal government now that the tax and spending law has been signed by President Donald Trump.
Funding the increased costs might prove difficult as Arkansas’ once-robust surplus shrinks. The Legislature has cut taxes in successive legislative sessions, and Arkansas’ Republican supermajority and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders has focused on tax cuts, not increases. Arkansas’ budget surplus is projected to fall to $185.1 million by June 2026, down from $367.9 million last month and $698.4 million at the end of FY2024.
At the same time, Sanders has made addressing childhood food insecurity one of the centerpieces of her administration. She has frequently touted the passage of legislation providing universal school breakfast for students, regardless of financial need.
Still, Arkansas has shed roughly 35% of the individuals, and approximately 23% of the households, on its SNAP rolls since FY 2018, according to federal data even as food insecurity in the state has worsened and food banks report that the demand for assistance has remained stubbornly high since the pandemic.
Kent Eikenberry, CEO of the Northwest Arkansas Foodbank, noted the length of time before many of the changes will go into effect.
“We’ll be spending these next couple years trying to figure out what exactly, how it is going to impact the people that we serve,” Eikenberry said.
Eikenberry and Piechocki agreed that the demand at their food banks has gone up considerably in recent years.
, and I think the need has remained, unfortunately,” Piechocki said, noting that the amount of food it distributes has doubled in the last few years. “We’ve maintained this, kind of, higher level of distribution.”
Cathy May, the SNAP director for the Arkansas Hunger Relief Alliance, said it would be a “tragedy” if states must eliminate the nutrition program or reduce its availability due to the federal cuts. May was cautiously hopeful about Arkansas’ funding prospects, saying the alliance planned to work closely with the state to help communities.
“I’m hopeful that our state will come through, but, you know, part of it depends on the error rates,” May said.
May said she was “heartbroken” when the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed Congress, calling the moment “crushing” since she knew what it could mean for those reliant on the long-running nutrition program.
“There’s nothing beautiful about it,” May said. “It’s one of the ugliest things I’ve ever seen in my whole life.”
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